2004 Retrospective/2005 Look Ahead

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I'm going to be on a panel discussing the politically important things that happened in 2004, so here's some notes about 2004 and a look ahead at 2005.

Important events in 2004:

  1. The fall of Howard Dean and the rise of John Kerry to become the nominee.
  2. Progress and setbacks in gay rights. Gay marriage had a huge setback in the ballot initatives, but civil unions made headway as the defaults compromise solution. The year begins with Howard Dean as crazy-eyed radical for supporting civil unions, and ends with President Bush endorsing civil unions.
  3. Iraq's unravelling and Abu Ghraib and its aftermath.
  4. The smearing of John Kerry (Swift Boat Veterans for "Truth" primarily) and the failure of the media to call "bullshit".
  5. The validation of the small donor, grassroots fundraising model.
  6. The failure to do anything strategic with that model.
  7. Bush's victory.

A look ahead at (possibliy) important events in 2005:

Predicting the future is a fool's errand, but here's some ideas about what might happen in 2005

  1. Iraq. Does it calm down after the elections or turn into a full fledged civil war? If the latter, do we "stay the course" or get the hell out?
  2. Does the Democratic Party go for a reform-minded chair like Howard Dean, Simon Rosenberg or Donnie Fowler, or someone from the DC status quo? This decision will have a big impact on the 2006 and 2008 elections.
  3. The progressive movement rethinks itself. Discussions are on among Democrats, labor, and environmentalists how to be more effective. Will they work together?
  4. Whatever Bush is pushing. This makes its own importance.
  5. Will the Democrats be a party of compromise on the 2000-2004 model, or become a true opposition party?